Danielle Liverance
10 min read
Quick Read
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The S&P 500 fund rose 2.36% on Monday, its best day since April 8, 2026, erasing 85% of last week’s 2.7% loss; the Nasdaq-100 fund rose 3.54% and is still 10.6% below its October 6 record.
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Since 1999, 14 corrections produced a 2% day from 5% to 10% below the record: 9 gave the whole bounce back within a month (median 6 sessions), and 8 of the 13 with a year of data were higher a year later, by a median of 6.7%.
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For $780,000 going into stocks from a $1,300,000 rollover, the median year after a bounce was $52,300 as a lump sum and $58,500 in thirds; the 2007 case lost $327,900 either way, which is what the $520,000 bond sleeve (10.8 years of the $48,000 draw) is for.
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Take a 62-year-old who retired in October and rolled $1,300,000 straight from a 401(k) into an IRA. The transfer landed as cash on Friday, so the money sat out both Thursday’s drop and Monday’s rebound, and the plan is 60% stocks and 40% bonds and cash: $780,000 into an S&P 500 index fund and $520,000 into Treasuries and a money market fund. A $48,000 pension covers half of the $96,000 a year they spend, so the IRA has to supply $48,000 a year, 3.7% of the balance, until Social Security starts at 67. The question on Monday night is the one you are asking if you hold cash: put the $780,000 in now, or wait for the bounce to prove itself. Monday’s gain reads as the market calling last week a scare rather than the start of a bear market; it also looks exactly like the sharp one-day rallies that show up inside every decline, and the record below says you cannot tell the two apart on the day. The record’s answer, worked out below, is a third now and the rest over the next two months, with the bond side kept out of the argument.
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