(See the video above for Frank’s complete chart breakdown.) Bitcoin’s recent bounce could be the start of a much bigger move. Here are three reasons why: 1. Bullish patterns are working again. Bitcoin finally took advantage of a bullish formation this summer, leading to the large move in August. This is important because, from late 2025 into early 2026, three other bullish formations failed to produce any meaningful upside follow-through. That’s a key characteristic of a downtrend: bullish patterns don’t work. Conversely, sustainable uptrends are characterized by successful bullish breakouts, where pushes through resistance lead to additional upside follow-through. Even though bitcoin has already rallied considerably from its summer lows, the change in pattern behavior suggests this could still be the early stages of a larger comeback. 2. The weekly chart resembles the beginning of the 2023 advance. Zooming out, bitcoin has formed a structure throughout 2026 that looks very similar to what developed from 2022 into 2023. Back then, bitcoin broke through resistance while its key weekly moving averages began turning higher. Moving averages that had previously been declining and acting as resistance eventually turned higher and became support. That is one of the clearest characteristics of an asset transitioning from a downtrend into an uptrend. Importantly, the bullish breakout in early 2023 proved to be only the beginning of a much larger advance that ultimately extended into late 2025. Bitcoin is displaying similar price action today. 3. The long-term uptrend remains intact, while momentum is improving. Looking at the very long-term chart, bitcoin’s latest comeback began near a key rising trendline extending back to 2017 . There have been three prior instances when bitcoin pulled back toward this trendline, and each was followed by a substantial rally in the months ahead. At the same time, the August rally produced a monthly gain of roughly 20%. During bitcoin’s weaker periods, moves of that magnitude have been notably absent. After an extended stretch without a 20% monthly gain, its return could be another indication that momentum is beginning to improve beyond just the short term. Frank Cappelleri is the founder and president of CappThesis , an independent research firm that helps active investors through time-tested chart and statistical analysis. Prior to starting CappThesis, he spent 25 years on Wall Street as an equity sales trader, technical analyst, research sales specialist and desk strategist. DISCLOSURES: (None) All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
Three reasons why bitcoin’s recent bounce could be the start of a bigger bullish move
Oct 1, 2026
