Quick Read
-
Sri-Kumar called for a 50 bps Fed hike while conceding even 25 may not happen, with the 10-year Treasury just one basis point from 5%.
-
His danger zone triggers when the 30-year reaches 5.75% with a 75 bps spread over the 10-year; the 30-year already sits at 5.37%.
-
Sri-Kumar argues rising oil and global tariffs drive inflation more than any monthly CPI print, with core PCE above the Fed’s 2% target for years.
-
Just released. Our analysts combed the entire stock market and named the ten best stocks to buy right now. The report is free. Enter your email and see if any of your stocks made the cut.
Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, told CNBC on Friday, September 11, that the Federal Reserve ought to raise its policy rate by 50 basis points at its meeting next week, while acknowledging that even a 25 basis point move may not happen.
The Federal Funds target range upper bound is 3.75%, which has remained unchanged for months. The ten-year Treasury yield closed at 4.95% on September 10, 2026, its highest level in the trailing year and up from a trailing-year low of 3.97% on February 27, 2026.
The Case for a 50 Basis Point Rate Increase
Sri-Kumar framed the interest rate decision against structural forces the market is facing, rather than just recent CPI numbers: “Oil prices are rising and the tariffs are being increased across the world. Those are to me, the fundamentals are much more important than the 8:30 a.m CPI,” he said. Sri-Kumar’s reminded listeners that core PCE has run above 3% and that inflation has failed to meet the Fed’s 2% target for five and a half years.
The 10-Year Treasury Is Already Knocking on 5%
Against Sri-Kumar’s call for a 50 bp rate increase, here’s where rates currently sit:
-
10-year: 4.95%
-
20-year: 5.39%
-
30-year: 5.37%
A policy hike matters to homeowners and equity holders because of what it does to longer-dated yields, which price 30-year mortgages, corporate bonds, and the discount rate applied to future earnings.
Free Report, Just Released
The Top 10 Stocks To Buy Now
24/7 Wall St has helped investors make money for over two decades, and our top analysts just finished ranking the definitive Top 10 Stocks To Buy Now. Not the ten biggest companies. Not the ten everyone is arguing about. The ten best stocks to buy right now.
The report is free, and you can see why we think each stock is a top investment today.
Enter Your Email and See the Ten →
Sri-Kumar argued that a 25-basis-point move, or a hold, would let the long end keep drifting higher on its own as inflation pressure persists. His trigger for meaningful headwinds: a 30-year Treasury at 5.75% alongside a 75-basis-point spread between the 10- and 30-year.
