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Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a 10-day ceasefire starting on Thursday, US President Donald Trump said after speaking to Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese counterpart Joseph Aoun.

“These two Leaders have agreed that in order to achieve PEACE between their Countries, they will formally begin a 10 Day CEASEFIRE at 5 P.M. EST,” Trump said on his Truth Social network, without mentioning Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement.

U.S. Federal ​Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said ​he might further scale back the rate cuts he feels are appropriate ‌for the ⁠year ⁠given inflation that had become more ​persistent than expected even before the ​start of the current Middle East war drove up oil ​prices.

“If I were ⁠writing down ‌a ‘dot’ today I ​might ​have three, I might have ⁠four, I haven’t made up ​my mind,” Miran said, referring to ​the interest rate projections, known as the dot plot, that Federal Reserve officials produce every three months. In ‌March, Miran anticipated four quarter point cuts but, ​prices trends that ​had ⁠become “less favorable” might warrant a slower pace of reduction, Miran said at ​an event on the sidelines of meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) assured lawmakers it will aggressively pursue fraud and insider trading, amid rising concerns that traders may have used non-public information tied to White House policy decisions. The remarks come as the regulator probes suspiciously timed oil futures trades placed ahead of major announcements by President Donald Trump, with at least four instances flagged as potentially indicative of insider activity.

CFTC Chair Michael Selig said the agency would continue rulemaking despite operating with only one member, emphasizing the need for strong investor protections as markets grow more complex. He also defended oversight of prediction markets and highlighted the agency’s expanding role in digital assets, while acknowledging resource constraints even as enforcement priorities focus on market manipulation and transparency.

New York Fed President John Williams said the Middle East war is already pushing up inflation through higher energy prices, warning that prolonged conflict could trigger a broader supply shock. He expects inflation to rise above 3% in the coming months, with early signs of cost pressures spreading to airfares, groceries and other consumer goods, while underlying inflation trends remain mixed.

Williams said the Federal Reserve is in a wait-and-see mode on interest rates amid heightened uncertainty, balancing risks to growth and inflation. While policy remains steady for now, he noted rates could be adjusted depending on how the economy evolves, with inflation projected to ease back to the 2% target by 2027 even as labor market signals remain mixed. Read more

Anthropic on Thursday introduced Claude Opus 4.7, making the latest version of its AI model available across all Claude products and its API, as well as on Amazon Bedrock, Google Cloud’s Vertex AI and Microsoft Foundry.

The company said pricing remains unchanged from Opus 4.6, at $5 per million input tokens and $25 per million output tokens, signaling continuity in its commercial strategy while expanding access to the upgraded model.

Michael Selig, ​chair of the U.S. ​Commodity Futures Trading Commission, told Congress on Thursday ‌the agency ⁠would ⁠continue issuing ​regulations even though he is the ​five-member agency’s only sitting commissioner.

“We cannot, ​for the ⁠sake of ‌the American ​people, ​slow down in ⁠our rulemaking. It’s very important ​that we get ​investor protections, consumer protections and safeguards for our markets, and so I ‌cannot, unfortunately, commit to not ​do ​my job that ⁠I was appointed to do by the president,” ​Selig said during testimony before the House Agriculture Committee.

Strong forecasts from ASML and TSMC indicate continued robust spending on AI infrastructure by major cloud companies, supporting demand for chipmakers like Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom. TSMC raised its revenue outlook and plans higher capital expenditure, highlighting sustained momentum in advanced chip demand despite concerns over returns on AI investments.

However, growth is constrained by limited manufacturing capacity, with demand expected to outstrip supply across the semiconductor industry. Companies are securing long-term deals to lock in production, while TSMC and ASML ramp up expansion efforts, as tight capacity remains a key bottleneck in meeting surging AI chip demand.

U.S. Treasury yields edged lower as investors weighed the outlook for interest rates amid competing risks to inflation and economic growth. The pullback followed a recent rally driven by optimism over a potential Middle East ceasefire, while rising oil prices and tariffs continued to fuel inflation concerns above the Federal Reserve’s target.

At the same time, signs of a softening labour market and shifting expectations have reduced bets on rate cuts, with traders now pricing in less than a 50% chance of a cut by year-end. While economic data remains stable, policymakers signaled caution, as geopolitical tensions and inflation pressures keep the Fed’s next move uncertain.

U.S. natural gas futures edged higher on Thursday, supported by a recent drop in output and expectations of slightly stronger demand in the coming weeks. However, prices remained under pressure overall, with the market still in oversold territory and forecasts pointing to a larger-than-usual storage build due to mild weather.

Spot gas prices in Texas and California fell to record lows, even turning negative in some areas, as weak heating and cooling demand combined with strong renewable energy supply. Despite high overall production levels, subdued demand, rising LNG exports and ample storage continue to weigh on the market outlook.

Starlink, the satellite internet unit of SpaceX, is seeing rapid global growth, with app downloads and monthly active users more than doubling year-on-year in the first quarter, according to Apptopia. The service has delivered four straight quarters of over 100% user growth, strengthening its position as the key driver of SpaceX’s expected IPO and $1.75 trillion valuation.

Growth is being fueled by both emerging and developed markets, with Brazil and Argentina showing strong user expansion, while U.S. downloads also surged. With its subscriber base crossing 10 million, analysts say sustained growth and future ventures like orbital data centers will be critical to maintaining investor interest.

PepsiCo reported strong first-quarter results as price cuts and new snack offerings boosted demand. Revenue rose 8.5% to $19.44 billion, beating estimates, while net income jumped 27%. Lower prices on key brands and pressure from activist investor Elliott helped attract cost-conscious consumers.

The company also benefited from new products with cleaner and enhanced ingredients, driving shopper interest. Adjusted earnings topped expectations, though shares were flat in premarket trading, suggesting investors remain cautious despite solid operational performance.

Gold prices rose on Thursday as easing Middle East tensions reduced inflation concerns and strengthened expectations of lower interest rates. Spot gold climbed to $4,819.66 an ounce, extending gains after hitting a one-month high, as improved sentiment and declining liquidity pressures supported demand.

Analysts expect gold to remain well supported amid concerns over central bank independence and currency risks, even as oil prices eased. With markets pricing in a higher chance of U.S. rate cuts and global equities rallying, investor focus has shifted back to monetary policy, aiding the recovery in bullion and other precious metals.

The United States has begun mine-clearing operations in the Strait of Hormuz using drones, robotic systems and helicopters to reduce risks to personnel, though the effort remains complex and vulnerable to Iranian retaliation. The operation follows disruptions to global energy supplies caused by the conflict, with mines posing a significant threat even in small numbers.

Modern minesweeping relies on unmanned vehicles, sonar systems and remotely operated devices to detect and neutralize various types of mines. However, the process is slow and could take weeks, with ongoing risks from further mine deployment. Advances in AI and sensor technology may improve efficiency, but fully autonomous mine-clearing remains a future goal.

Oil prices rose on Thursday, reversing earlier losses as doubts grew over the effectiveness of U.S.-Iran peace talks in ending the conflict that has disrupted Middle East energy supplies. Brent climbed to $95.60 a barrel while WTI edged up, with analysts warning that conflicting headlines continue to keep markets volatile and uncertain.

The conflict has severely impacted global oil flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, with significant supply disruptions. While renewed talks and potential ceasefire signals offer some hope, ongoing sanctions, blockades, and falling U.S. inventories highlight tight supply conditions and persistent risks to global energy markets.

​U.S. forces in the Middle East are postured ‌to ⁠restart ⁠combat operations ​if Iran doesn’t agree to a ​peace deal, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told ​a Pentagon ⁠briefing on ‌Thursday.

“You ​Iran, ​can choose ⁠a prosperous future, a golden ​bridge, and we hope ​that you do for the people of Iran,” he ‌said.

“But if Iran chooses poorly, ​then they ​will ⁠have a blockade and bombs dropping on infrastructure, power ​and energy.”

Despite optimism, caution remains as investors worry about stretched valuations and policy uncertainty. Fed leadership transition concerns and mixed corporate reactions highlight risks, even as tech, software, and small-cap stocks continue to regain momentum in the broader rally.

Earnings season remained a key driver, with strong results from several companies reinforcing confidence in the US economy. PepsiCo gained after beating estimates, while Travelers declined. Netflix and Charles Schwab were among the closely watched upcoming reports.

Wall Street had already closed at record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, reflecting strong risk appetite. Analysts said markets are adapting to rapid shifts in geopolitical headlines, with traders increasingly positioning for quick reversals in sentiment.

Markets were supported by expectations of a potential ceasefire discussion involving Lebanon, which could reduce regional tensions. President Donald Trump also suggested Washington may still pursue a deal with Tehran, adding to optimism in global risk assets.

US stock index futures moved higher as investors grew more confident that the worst of the Middle East conflict may have passed. Sentiment improved after signs of possible diplomatic movement, even though no formal agreement with Iran has been reached yet.