Ben Gran, The Motley Fool
5 min read
When it comes to investing, it’s often said that “past performance does not guarantee future results.” Just because a stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) has performed well in the past doesn’t mean it will be the best investment going forward. Investing is about the future. People constantly make decisions about where to put their money to work based on what they think will happen next, not what already happened.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index is a good example. It has been one of the best investments of the past 10 to 15 years. During the past 10 years, the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ), an ETF that tracks the Nasdaq-100, has delivered an average annual total return of 20.5%. “The Qs” ETF has strongly outperformed the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) during that time.
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The past performance of this Nasdaq-100 ETF has been phenomenal, right? Here’s the thing: I’m concerned about future returns. When I consider new investments, I plan for the long run — like 20 years or longer. I believe it’s unlikely that U.S. tech stocks will maintain their recent track record of outperformance. There’s another ETF that I like better than QQQ for the next few decades.
Let’s look at why I’m investing in the Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEMKT: VTI) — not QQQ — for decades to come.
Why buy VTI instead of QQQ? Slower growth for growth stocks
If you believe that today’s biggest winners of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom are likely to keep winning for years to come, then you might want to buy the Invesco QQQ Trust. That tech ETF gives you a targeted way to own the biggest, most profitable tech companies.
But I’m not convinced that those 100 major tech names will be the best stocks to own for the next few decades. Recent Vanguard research projects that the ultimate winners of AI might not be today’s AI stocks. As Vanguard’s global head of capital market research, Qian Wang, said in a recent interview: “If AI truly transforms the economy, the ultimate winners may be the AI’s end users that improve productivity without bearing the upfront investment.”
In other words, it might not be the tech companies that are building AI tools today (and spending hundreds of billions of dollars on AI data centers) that deliver the biggest stock market returns tomorrow. Instead, it might be smaller companies, value-stock companies, and less tech-intensive industries that win the most from AI. The best investments today might be stocks and sectors that have been overlooked or underpriced while most investors focused all their energy on tech.
