What Is Going on With NVIDIA Stock on Tuesday?

Nvidia remains well-positioned for AI data center growth, according to KeyBanc analyst John Vinh, who raised his price forecast despite some near-term ramp delays.

KeyBanc Raises Nvidia Forecast

Vinh maintained an Overweight rating on Nvidia and raised his price forecast to $330 from $310. He said his takeaways were mixed but mostly positive, with a slight delay in the Vera Rubin ramp tied to thermal lid issues and SK Hynix qualification delays on HBM4.

The analyst said he sees limited risk to estimates because Nvidia can ship more B300 GPUs in place of R200. He expects Nvidia to ship 5.5 million to 6 million Blackwell GPUs this year, along with 1 million Hopper GPUs.

CoWoS Supply Supports AI Demand

Vinh said Nvidia’s 2026 CoWoS supply outlook remains unchanged at 650,000 interposers, while 2027 supply has been revised significantly higher to 1.1 million interposers. He said that the increase reflects strong demand and a full-year Rubin ramp.

The analyst expects Nvidia to ship 70,000 to 80,000 total racks this year, including 5,000 to 6,000 Vera Rubin racks. He also expects fewer than 1,000 LPU racks this year due to a delayed ramp, though demand remains strong.

Vinh said Nvidia remains uniquely positioned to benefit from secular growth in data center AI and machine learning. He also pointed to Nvidia’s CUDA software stack as a major barrier to entry and said competitive risks remain limited.

Hedge funds rushed back into U.S. semiconductor stocks last week, buying the sector at the fastest pace in at least three-and-a-half years after two straight weeks of heavy selling.

Hedge Funds Buy The Dip

Goldman Sachs data shared by The Kobeissi Letter showed semiconductor stocks now make up about 10% of total hedge fund exposure, roughly double last year’s level but below the nearly 14% peak in May.

The renewed buying suggests hedge funds see the recent chip-stock pullback as largely over, while ETF inflows show broader investor demand for AI-related semiconductor names.

Technical Analysis

Nvidia is trading above its 20-day SMA ($202.05), 100-day SMA ($198.10), and 200-day SMA ($191.95), which keeps the intermediate-to-long trend constructive even after recent chop. The catch is the stock is still trading slightly below its 50-day SMA ($209.27), and the 20-day SMA remains below the 50-day SMA—an early “cooling” signal that can cap rallies until price reclaims that zone cleanly.

Earnings Outlook

Looking further out, the next major catalyst for the stock arrives with the August 26, 2026 (estimated) earnings report.

EPS Estimate: $2.07 (Up from $1.04 YoY)
Revenue Estimate: $91.70 Billion (Up from $46.74 Billion YoY)
Valuation: P/E of 31.2x (Indicates premium valuation relative to peers)

Top ETF Exposure

Significance: Because NVDA carries such a heavy weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows will likely trigger automatic buying or selling of the stock.