D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) stock has dropped 70.8% over the past year, while the S&P 500 returned 17.4%. Investors continue to pay 353 times sales for the stock, compared with 3.1 times for the index, suggesting they expect far larger sales ahead. For that to happen, D-Wave must ship two annealing quantum computer systems in the fourth quarter and keep moving cloud customers into production use. So how much of D-Wave’s 2026 revenue is tied to two fourth-quarter shipments?
D-Wave Expects Most 2026 Revenue In The Fourth Quarter
The company expects to generate most of its annual revenue in the fourth quarter. On the August 6 call, management said fourth-quarter revenue should make up the majority of the year’s total, and both systems expected to ship in 2026 will likely go out during that period. So far, this is a forecast rather than a result.
Each machine represents a large sale for a business of this size. D-Wave prices its annealing systems at $20 million to $40 million. By comparison, the company generated $12.4 million in revenue over the twelve months to June 30, 2026. This small revenue figure, which fell 44.2% from a year earlier, is why the sales multiple is so high.
Timing presents a risk. Management said timing is typically a function of site selection, and D-Wave books a system’s revenue over about two quarters once the site is ready. Management already expects to book some revenue from the 2026 systems in 2027.
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Are D-Wave’s Cloud Customers Moving Into Production?
So far, the shift is happening. Production applications accounted for over 37% of D-Wave’s first-half cloud subscription revenue, compared with 9.8% in the first half of 2025. Subscription revenue for the second quarter reached $1.9 million, up 50% from a year earlier.
Management said one successful production deployment led NTT DOCOMO to identify and implement another application. While this shows how a single use case can turn into repeat business, cloud revenue remains small next to one system sale.
How Long Can D-Wave’s Cash Last?
The company has about 4.5 years of cash remaining at the past year’s pace, before paying down any debt. D-Wave held $546 million in cash and short-term investments at June 30, 2026, against $48.1 million of debt. It burned $120 million of cash over the twelve months to that date.
This cash is needed because D-Wave spends far more than it sells. The company posted a -1,373% operating margin over those twelve months, compared with an 18.5% operating margin for the S&P 500. Management said the second-quarter adjusted loss grew mainly because of spending on staff for faster product development and selling.
