That was a fun week for investors, right?
Ok, you’re allowed to say, “That was a bit too much volatility for relatively little gain.”
By which we mean this is how the market ended the week with a big, broad rally: The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 1.2% for the week. The Dow Jones Industrials gained a whopping 0.3%.
Related: A bond market revolt pushes a key rate to 19-year high
The Nasdaq Composite added an OK 2%. We say OK in this instance in part because of the volatility during the week and because the index jumped 8.7% over two weeks at the end of June and early July.
At the same time, the bond market had a meltdown. Investors sold the 10-year bond heavily, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to levels not seen since July 2006. The yield hit high as 5.23% on Sept. 25 before drifting to a close of 5.17%.
And truckers, farmers, construction companies, and railroad companies were all weighed down by diesel prices that topped $6.50 a gallon nationally — and nearly $8.50 a gallon in California.
In fact, my colleague Daniel Klein found this ugly stat: At least 16 trucking companies started bankruptcy proceedings between late August and Sept. 21.
So, after taking a breath and uttering an epithet or two, it’s time to ask, “What do I face next?”
Here are four questions investors might want to ask:
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What will happen with interest rates?
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What will happen with oil prices — and, yes, diesel and gas prices, too?
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Will tech stocks reassume their leadership of the stock market?
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What will the September jobs report show?
The jobs report will grab lots of attention
My list may sound backwards because the monthly jobs report from the Labor Department is typically the single most important economic report of the month.
But Wall Street doesn’t think you will see much change in the unemployment rate or jobs data for September from August. Right now, the consensus is:
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New jobs created in September: 100,000. That would be down from 162,000 in August. That number is likely to see a revision.
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The unemployment rate: 4.2%, up from 4.1% in August.
As important: the Commerce Department’s data on personal income and expenses, due Sept. 30. The Personal Consumption Expenditure Index could impact whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again on Oct. 28.
Oil and the Middle East: Never far from mind
Rising interest rates and oil prices dominated market thinking this past week and will again next week.
Higher rates and higher oil prices are both the product of pressures unleashed by the war begun on Feb. 28 when Israel and the United States attacked Iran.
