Winnebago Industries (NYSE:WGO) stock soared 7.8% through 12:20 p.m. ET despite missing on earnings this morning.
Heading into the fiscal Q4 report, analysts had predicted Winnebago would earn $0.51 per share on sales of $665.3 million. Winnebago actually earned only $0.49 per share, however, and its sales came in light at $645.1 million.
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Image source: Winnebago.
Winnebago Q4 earnings
It’s unusual to see investors reacting so positively to a big earnings miss — so what’s going on here, exactly?
Winnebago’s Q4 sales declined 17% year over year, and its gross profit margin suffered, slipping 30 basis points to 12.5%. Operating margins, however, improved slightly, up 10 basis points to 2.7%. Still, the big decline in revenue meant that Winnebago’s earnings were destined to fall — and fall they did, down 31% to just $0.34 per share, when calculated under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP).
(The $0.49 per share “profit,” you see, was non-GAAP.)
What’s next for Winnebago stock
Winnebago’s full-year results as bad. Revenue declined only 3%, to $2.7 billion. Earnings per share increased 33%, to $1.21 per share. At a share price of $25, that works out to a P/E ratio of less than 21x on Winnebago stock.
But is that cheap enough to make Winnebago stock a “buy?”
That depends. Turning to guidance, Winnebago management forecast sales to be flat to up slightly this year — $2.65 billion or better. The earnings forecast shows a wide range of potential outcomes, $0.90 to $1.50 per share. At the midpoint, that implies about a $1.20-per-share profit, which would be flat against fiscal 2026.
If Winnebago succeeds in maxing out its forecast, however, well, $1.50 per share would be 24% year-over-year growth — plenty fast to justify a 21x price-to-earnings ratio. Add in a fat 6.2% dividend yield, and Winnebago stock could be a winner in 2027.
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