Fed Rate-Cut Prospects Are Falling, Market Data Shows

Fed Rate-Cut Prospects Are Falling, Market Data Shows

Traders are pricing in fewer Federal Reserve interest-rate reductions by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

There’s now a 38% chance of the key rate falling by a half-point from the current level by the time the central bank has made its Dec. 10 decision, and a 32% of only a single quarter-point cut by then. A month ago, the most likely odds were for the key rate to decline by a full percentage point in the rest of 2025.

Minutes of the May meeting published yesterday didn’t mention rate cuts at all. Traders see virtually no chance of a cut at the next decision on June 18.