If last week was the setup (consumer and wholesale inflation data, surging oil prices), then this week is the main event, with all eyes squarely on Washington, D.C., where the Federal Reserve on Wednesday will announce its latest rate decision.
With a relatively quiet calendar otherwise, the hike vs. hold debate — and its impact on markets — will define the week.
The rising yields and oil prices weighed on the stock market, which welcomed the higher-than-expected inflation report on Friday that signaled a coming Fed hike.
For the week, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.8%, and the Dow (^DJI) and Nasdaq (^IXIC) rose 0.9%.
Wednesday will set the tone for the entire week, with the Fed’s decision due out at 2 p.m. ET, followed by a press conference from Chairman Kevin Warsh at 2:30 p.m. ET. Last time, Warsh’s comments sent Treasury yields spiking as markets read an abdication of responsibility, so much attention will be paid to how the Fed chair addresses inflation.
A hike would certainly put some of those concerns to rest.
Elsewhere on the economic calendar is a collection of manufacturing data, set to give investors another view into how the AI infrastructure boom is reshaping an increasingly physical economy. We’ll get Empire manufacturing numbers on Tuesday, followed by the Federal Reserve’s industrial production and manufacturing production data on Friday.
The market gears up for a possible Fed hike on Wednesday
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has been very clear about one thing in the first three months of his tenure: He does not want the Fed telegraphing its next move. But investors are pretty firmly convinced they know what’s coming anyway.
After consumer pricing (CPI) data came in largely in line with estimates on Friday — with so-called “core” CPI slightly hotter than expected on a monthly basis — bets that the Fed will issue a rate hike on Wednesday have spiked to roughly 86%.
The argument is straightforward, according to JPMorgan’s chief US economist Michael Feroli: “Simply that core PCE inflation has been above 3% every month this year and has made little recent progress heading towards 2%.”
In other words, inflation is too hot, and it’s not making progress.
Pushing up bets that the Fed will hike is Warsh himself, who took a much more forceful approach in his first Jackson Hole symposium on the Fed’s role in taming inflation than he had previously. Those comments, perhaps intentionally, went toward assuaging market watchers who were concerned after the July meeting about how the new Fed chair views the central bank’s role in taming inflation.
