Chinese stocks poised for more gains after ‘healthy correction’: Goldman Sachs

Jun 11, 2024

Chinese stocks poised for ‘another leg up’ after ‘healthy correction’: Goldman Sachs

Chinese stocks are set for another bounce following a recent consolidation, with a key meeting in Beijing next month set to inject more supportive measures into the market, according to Goldman Sachs and Bank of America.

The recent pullback is “a healthy correction” as the stimulus-powered rally got overheated while the momentum from various measures has petered out, according to Timothy Moe, chief Asia-Pacific equity strategist at Goldman Sachs. Further upside could be unlocked as policymakers announce more support, he added.

“It’s sort of [like] the market caught its breath, and we expect another leg up,” Moe said at a media briefing in Hong Kong on Tuesday.

The MSCI China Index, which tracks 702 Chinese companies listed at home and abroad, has corrected by 6.4 per cent since its peak on May 20 as renewed geopolitical tensions, patchy macroeconomic data and ongoing struggles in the property market prompted investors to take profits.

Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Tech Index, which tracks China’s tech heavyweights listed in Hong Kong, including Tencent and Alibaba, has declined more than 10 per cent since its most recent peak and briefly entered a technical correction on Monday.

“We expect the third plenum to have more announcements in both scope and granularity concerning the property market,” Moe said. Policymakers might be slightly disappointed with the market’s reaction to the previous rescue package and have realised that more is needed. If the direction laid out is forceful enough, the equity market is likely to find comfort in it, he said.

Goldman Sachs’ latest backing for Chinese equities comes after it bucked the trend of its Wall Street peers and took a bullish view last month. It raised its 12-month targets for the MSCI China Index by 17 per cent to 70 and by 5.1 per cent to 4,100 for the CSI 300 Index of yuan-traded stocks, betting the earnings recovery and valuation expansion will continue to support the market.

Undemanding price-to-earnings ratios could lead to further valuation recovery, and the nine guidelines announced in April regarding A shares are very positive from a long-term structural perspective, Moe added.

To be sure, risks remain. More macro indicators due this week, including the consumer and producer price indices for May, are likely to show that deflation pressure remains and that the economic recovery has yet to find a solid footing. Geopolitical tensions with the US, particularly as the US election approaches, could also flare up and rattle markets.

People pass the Shanghai Stock Exchange in the Pudong district of Shanghai on June 5, 2024. Photo: AFP

The market is likely to be rangebound for the next few weeks while awaiting further catalysts, Winnie Wu, chief China equity strategist at Bank of America Securities, said in a note to clients on Friday.

Still, consolidation at a higher level and improving sentiment are constructive signs, she added. “The potential ‘higher lows’ should help rebuild market confidence and attract more investors to revisit the China investment thesis,” Wu said.

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