Simply Wall St
3 min read
Exelixis (EXEL) is back in focus after its third quarter 2026 earnings, where revenue reached US$658.7 million and net income came in at US$218.1 million, both above last year’s levels.
The earnings beat and steady 2026 guidance reset the tone around Exelixis, with the share price up 4.82% on the day and a 30 day share price return of 18.80%, contributing to a 59.22% year to date move. The 5 year total shareholder return of 258.42% shows how long term holders have already been rewarded even as recent momentum accelerates.
Spot fresh oncology momentum by comparing Exelixis to a hand picked 34 healthcare AI stocks that are also trying to turn cutting edge science into durable earnings.
Exelixis now trades above the average analyst target, while some intrinsic value estimates sit much higher. Is the recent surge already rich, or only partway to fair value?
Most Popular Narrative: 69% Overvalued
At a last close of $69.39 versus a most-followed fair value of $41.17 based on a 7.51% discount rate, the Exelixis valuation story hinges on whether current oncology cash flows truly support a premium or simply price in too much execution risk.
The numbers imply that Exelixis shares already reflect strong value for a company with a cabozantinib run-rate above $3b, meaningful buybacks and expanding GI oncology ambitions. This leaves limited room for error if growth from NET and colorectal indications, or zanzalintinib approvals, come in weaker or slower than implied.
See why 4 investors see Exelixis as 69% overvalued.
Result: Fair Value of $41.17 (OVERVALUED)
Still, if Exelixis maintains cabozantinib cash flows near current levels and executes on zanzalintinib launches, the bearish valuation case could soften.
Find out about the key risks to this Exelixis narrative.
Another View: Multiples Point To A Different Exelixis Story
While the bearish fair value lands at $41.17, simple P/E math paints a more mixed picture for Exelixis. The shares trade on 19.4x earnings, which is almost identical to the US Biotechs industry at 19.3x but well below peers at 57.9x and under a fair ratio of 22.3x. That combination suggests the price could still shift meaningfully if the market decides Exelixis belongs closer to peers or closer to the fair ratio, so which crowd do you think it will follow.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
Opinions on Exelixis in this piece lean cautious; however, the data cuts more than one way, so move quickly and stress test the upside yourself by checking the 3 key rewards.
