Great News for Nvidia, Micron, Broadcom, and AMD Stock Investors — Wall Street Made a Mistake

The semiconductor stocks listed below have created significant wealth for shareholders. The percentage next to each name quantifies the share price appreciation since January 2023.

• Nvidia (NVDA -4.58%) has added 1,060%.
• Broadcom (AVGO +4.86%) has added 495%.
• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD +5.38%) has added 695%.
• Micron Technology (MU -3.01%) has added 1,350%.

All four stocks trade below their highs — AMD is down 20%, Broadcom and Nvidia are down 30%, and Micron is down 40% — but there is some good news for shareholders. AI spending will be much higher than Wall Street expected in 2026, and the same outcome is probable in 2027.

Here are the important details.

Wall Street significantly underestimated AI spending in 2026 and (probably) 2027

Wall Street analysts have consistently underestimated how much technology companies will spend on artificial intelligence infrastructure. According to JPMorgan Chase chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli, “The surge in AI -related expenditures has been the defining feature of our economic times.”

In January, the consensus estimate said capital expenditures (capex) among the five largest hyperscalers — Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Oracle — would total $546 billion this year. But Wall Street now expects those companies to spend $800 billion in 2026, nearly double what they invested last year,

Similarly, the Wall Street consensus initially put capex spending at $630 billion in 2027, but that forecast has since been upwardly revised to $1.1 trillion. And Morgan Stanley expects spending to approach $1.6 trillion next year if CoreWeave, Nebius, and Space Exploration Technologies are included in the math.

So what? Wall Street analysts have dramatically raised their forecasts for AI infrastructure spending. Since January, the consensus capex forecasts for the top five hyperscalers have increased 50% for 2026 and 75% for 2027. Those are not minor revisions. They are major changes that reflect extraordinary demand.

Wall Street has now substantially underestimated hyperscaler capex spending in three consecutive years, which means the consensus forecasts for 2027 may be too low right now. That’s good news for semiconductor companies Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and Micron.

The investment thesis for Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and Micron

Micron manufactures memory chips, including high-bandwidth memory (HBM), that are crucial in storing and delivering information to AI processors. Micron is the third-largest supplier of DRAM and NAND flash memory, behind Samsung and SK Hynix. Revenue increased 379% to $54. 2 billion last quarter, and the company should maintain its momentum as the AI boom creates more demand for memory and storage solutions.

Nvidia is best known for its graphics processing units (GPUs), powerful chips needed to train and run AI models. The company dominates the AI accelerator market, with over 80% revenue share, supported by its adjacent networking and software products. Revenue rose 106% to $96 billion in the last quarter, and Nvidia is well positioned for future growth due to the recent launch of its next-generation Vera Rubin platform.

Broadcom designs custom AI accelerator chips for six major technology companies, including OpenAI and Anthropic. It also dominates the market for data center switching and routing chips, with about 70% revenue share. Revenue increased 86% to $29.6 billion in the last quarter, and growth could accelerate if major customers lean more heavily on custom silicon as an alternative to Nvidia GPUs in the future.

AMD designs chips for personal computers and data centers, including GPUs that power AI applications. The company has taken substantial market share in central processing units (CPUs) from Intel in recent years, but it has failed to erode Nvidia’s dominance in GPUs. Revenue increased 45% to $13.4 billion in the last quarter, but growth could accelerate as customers like OpenAI, Meta, and Microsoft seek alternatives to Nvidia GPUs.

Which semiconductor stock is the best buy right now

For each company, the chart below lists the current price-to-earnings multiple and the Wall Street consensus for annual earnings growth over the next three years. It combines those numbers to find a price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio.

Data source: YCharts.

As shown above, Micron is currently the cheapest of the four semiconductor stocks, with a PEG ratio of 0.2. Nvidia and Broadcom land in the middle. And AMD is the most expensive, with a PEG ratio of 1.6.

Interestingly, Wall Street analysts rank the stocks in the same order. The chart below shows the current share price, median target price, and implied upside for each.

Data source: The Wall Street Journal.

Despite what Wall Street’s forecasts imply, I think investors should purchase a position in all four stocks rather than attempt to pick one winner. Diversification is a smart move here. You never know what might go wrong for a single company — recent headlines concerning Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang are proof of that.

JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Trevor Jennewine has positions in Amazon and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, Intel, JPMorgan Chase, Meta Platforms, Micron Technology, Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, and Space Exploration Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.