The markets could be in for some choppiness if the government shutdown next week, according to Bank of America. While outcomes can vary widely, the bank found that the S & P 500 averages a loss of 5% between the week before and the week after a shutdown, based on data going back to 1990. That said, when looking at the same period for the shutdown that ran from the end of 2018 in 2019, the broad index rallied 6%. Here’s BofA’s breakdown of market performance around government shutdowns: Congress has not yet reached a deal to fund the government before its Wednesday deadline. President Donald Trump also told federal agencies to prepare for making mass firings if an agreement by lawmakers can’t be made in time. Bank of America rate strategist Mark Cabana told clients that markets usually care much less about shutdowns than potential breaches of the debt ceiling. However, some on Wall Street have warned that the weak economic backdrop could make a shutdown more impactful this time around. ( Learn the best 2026 strategies from inside the NYSE with Josh Brown and others at CNBC PRO Live. Tickets and info here . )
How does the U.S. stock market typically react to a government shutdown?
Sep 26, 2025
