Trefis Team
4 min read
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Coca-Cola (KO) stock returned 40.2% over the year to October 20, 2026, against 17.1% for the S&P 500. Buyers after that run appear to be counting on the company to keep selling more of drinks like Trademark Coca-Cola, and to hold its net margin near the highest level of the past ten years. So if you buy at today’s price, how much more could the shares make you over three years?
How Much More Could Coca-Cola Shares Make You?
Under these assumptions, Coca-Cola stock would gain about 21.1% over three years, before dividends. This scenario grows revenue at a steady pace from the twelve months to July 3, 2026, and holds the P/E at today’s level. Both are Trefis assumptions rather than a forecast. Here is how Coca-Cola’s figures today compare with the projected numbers three years on:
All of that gain relies on Coca-Cola increasing its sales. Revenue growth accounts for more than the entire upside, with part of those gains lost to a slightly lower net margin.
Coca-Cola’s revenue grew 6.5% over the twelve months to July 3, 2026, accelerating from the 1.3% and 5.3% rates of the prior two twelve-month periods. The scenario models a pace a quarter higher, at 8.1% a year, so with margin and P/E as modeled, the shares reach this mark only if Coca-Cola expands its sales faster than it has lately.
Coca-Cola Sells More, But Below The Scenario’s Pace
Management said organic revenue grew 6% in the fiscal Q2 2026 quarter. With its marketing around the FIFA World Cup, Coca-Cola expanded its Trademark Coca-Cola volume by 5%, marking its strongest performance in 17 years excluding the COVID recovery. New business is arriving too: KFC is switching its U.S. restaurants from PepsiCo to Coca-Cola as its drinks supplier, CNBC reported in mid-October.
Management’s own outlook is slower than the scenario, though the two rely on different measures. Management expects organic revenue growth of about 5% in fiscal 2026. The scenario instead assumes reported revenue growth of 8.1% a year, setting the pace a quarter above the latest twelve months’ rate rather than pulling from the guide.
How Does Coca-Cola’s Upside Change In Different Scenarios?
Here is the upside with one assumption changed at a time:
