There is a sense that a sticky inflation reading of 3.7% could raise concerns about an economic downturn. But here’s the encouraging part many investors tend to miss: cooling consumer demand, coupled with rising personal income, means consumers are simply being more selective with their spending.
That moderation in consumer spending could hold the key to lower inflation in the future, paving the way for a favorable interest-rate environment and, ultimately, for stock valuations.
Why the PCE inflation of 3.7% means little
According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 3.7% in July versus the same month a year ago. Excluding food and energy, the price index rose 3.3%.
However, on a month-on-month basis, personal income expanded by a robust 0.4%, while personal expenditures (both core and headline) rose by just 0.2%. Real PCE rose less than 0.1%. Personal savings rate rose 3%.
In short, real consumer spending flattened to near zero despite positive income growth, resulting in higher savings.
Not surprisingly, the S&P 500, the bellwether index for the U.S. economy, shrugged off the yearly numbers and closed flat.
Image source: Getty Images.
The selective consumer is back
To me, this looks like a structural shift. Consumers are no longer blindly accepting price hikes and are reallocating their priorities. Net personal expenditures rose $36.3 billion month-on-month, with spending on services up $86.2 billion and spending on goods down $49.9 billion, with the highest spending levels in financial services and insurance, healthcare, and housing.
Is this demand destruction, as bears would point out? Far from it. Savvy investors will see this as a prudent buyer strike that will force companies to slash prices as demand cools, thereby lowering inflation.
Buy secular winners with strong free cash flow
With the 10-year Treasury rate below 4.7%, the S&P 500’s earnings yield of 3.38% may not look too attractive to investors.
This warrants caution, and index investing may not be the best approach. Instead, going for profitable companies with strong free cash flow is the key. These companies essentially have room to absorb slower sales without taking on debt or cutting investment to fund operations or growth. In an expensive debt market with higher borrowing costs, the ability to convert earnings into cash shines through.
Additionally, management can use excess cash to pay out dividends or fund share buybacks, ultimately benefiting investors.
High-quality names, such as Microsoft (MSFT +0.95%) and Nvidia (NVDA -1.59%), are cash-flow compounders that have pricing power. Their products and services are viewed as essential infrastructure. Pricing power inevitably leads to margin expansion, a key driver of free cash flow growth.
Microsoft’s cloud business, for example, brought in more than $59 billion in sales in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, up 27% year on year. It’s exceptionally difficult to switch a cloud or software subscription that is inherently recurring.
On the other hand, Nvidia’s GPUs enable artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscalers to run data centers without a glitch. Customers wouldn’t be questioning how much each GPU costs, but asking how much economic value each chip can generate.
Buy defensive cashflow compounders
Regardless of how people feel about the economy, some businesses, such as Procter & Gamble (NYSE: P&G), thrive because their products are considered essential staples. People are less likely to stop buying laundry detergent, toothpaste, soap, and other basic personal-care products during a downturn or bear market.
Even if input costs rise due to inflation, a strong brand retains pricing power. So it’s a mixture of volume growth and pricing power that drives free cash flow and dividends.
Typically, dividends paid out from such businesses are safe. Shareholders essentially participate in the company’s growth through rising dividends that outpace inflation.
Additionally, during periods of economic uncertainty, valuations of sound, defensive businesses tend to rise as investors place greater value on cash-flow certainty.
The stock market will pull through
The latest economic data from the U.S. BEA has more reasons to be positive than negative. While pessimism can drive short-term trading and speculation, what matters in the long run is holding quality businesses in your stock portfolio.
One of the best things investors can do is stay invested in a portfolio of 50 quality stocks — even during temporary market pullbacks.
Additionally, understanding your personal risk tolerance is important, and evaluating each stock’s potential return relative to that risk should drive your investment thesis.
