Penn hosted Cook Political Report elections analyst David Wasserman on Monday to discuss competitive congressional races and future trends in the electorate ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
During a Nov. 2 question-and-answer event — which was hosted by the Penn Political Union — students asked Wasserman about redistricting, election forecasting, and early results that could indicate which party would win control of the House of Representatives. He also discussed how current congressional races can reveal demographic and political shifts that could shape future presidential elections.
Wasserman explained that his interest in congressional elections stems in part from their potential to signal changes in voters’ preferences before those changes become apparent in presidential contests.
“I think congressional races offer a brilliant preview of trends in the electorate that are coming down the pike that impact what the presidential race might look like four or eight years down the road,” he added.
He said that examining individual districts can help analysts assess races where polling is limited, adding that “paying attention to those national shifts and the demographic trends within each district tells you just as much as the polling.”
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Students also asked Wasserman about the future of polling as prediction markets become a more prominent source of election forecasts.
He expressed concern that reliance on those markets could weaken financial incentives for news organizations to commission independent polls — even as the markets themselves draw on polling data. He also raised concerns about traders’ access to information that is unavailable to the public, including private polling conducted by political parties.
“How can you possibly police that?” Wasserman asked.
When looking at specific House races, he identified congressional districts in Kentucky, Florida, and Virginia as places he would watch early on election night for indications of how later races might unfold. A Democratic victory in Kentucky’s 6th congressional district, he said, “would be a really strong sign that they’re on track for more than 20 seats.”
Democrat Zach Dembo ultimately defeated Republican Ralph Alvarado in Kentucky’s 6th congressional district, flipping the seat for Democrats. The result was among the widespread Democratic gains in an election that gave the party control of both the House and Senate.
Students also asked about gerrymandering and the potential effects of redistricting on the balance of power in Congress. Wasserman predicted that Republican efforts to redraw congressional maps might produce fewer additional seats than the party had anticipated.
“Gerrymandering has not yielded the gains that Republicans had initially hoped,” he added.
He pointed to Texas, where he said Republicans had targeted five Democratic seats but might gain only one or two.
Republican redistricting efforts ultimately fell short of the party’s goals in Texas, Florida, and Alabama, according to The Associated Press’ postelection analysis. Those outcomes aligned with Wasserman’s initial assessment that the new congressional maps might yield fewer Republican gains than initially anticipated.
Beyond district boundaries and polling, Wasserman explained that he tries to consider whether candidates’ backgrounds and messages align with the communities they seek to represent.
“Are they cut from the cloth of the district they’re trying to represent?” he added. “Is their message going to resonate with voters there?”
According to Wasserman, Republican candidates who establish political identities independent of 1968 Wharton graduate and President Donald Trump tend to perform better.
When asked about Pennsylvania’s 1st congressional district, he predicted that Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick would retain his seat despite a more competitive race — adding that Fitzpatrick’s efforts to distance himself from Trump could help him maintain support among Bucks County voters.
Wasserman added that expectations of a Democratic House majority could make some voters more comfortable supporting Fitzpatrick, since they might view his reelection as less consequential to control of the chamber.
Penn senior and PPU Vice President of External Affairs Neil Pereira expressed that Wasserman’s discussion highlighted the significance of the midterms for subsequent elections.
“I think the implications of the midterms for the 2028 presidential election, but also just the important issues we can glean from this election for voters,” he said.
Looking ahead to 2028, Wasserman predicted an “extremely crowded” Democratic presidential primary in which a candidate with a smaller but committed base could have an advantage.
“The advantage in a really crowded field goes to whoever can garner the most devoted and passionate following of even 15 or 20% of the party,” he explained.
Wasserman also encouraged students interested in politics or political journalism to gain experience working on congressional campaigns and develop expertise in a particular subject or geographic area.
“Sometimes there’s a danger in getting too bogged down in theoretical politics at the expense of learning about politics at the practical level,” he said.
