Key Takeaways
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Rocket Lab fell 12% in a week as space stocks, SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile included, slid with tech and on the midterms.
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Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its Buy rating and $122 price target on Nov. 4.
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Neutron’s first launch has slipped into 2027, with no date yet.
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Until Rocket Lab names a Neutron date, the Street’s $102 consensus target looks more realistic than Cantor’s $122.
Rocket Lab (RKLB:NASDAQ) stock is down 12% in the past week, and its own news had little to do with it. Space stocks sold off as a group: SpaceX (SPCX:NASDAQ) took a hit from the midterms, and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS:NASDAQ) fell 15%.
Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its Buy rating and $122 target on Nov. 4, 136% above that day’s close.
Space stocks fell together
On Oct. 30, the Nasdaq 100 lost 4% in a tech sell-off. Then, the day after Democrats swept the midterms, investors sold SpaceX on Musk’s politics, and the rest of the group fell with it even as the S&P 500 rose 2%.
Rocket Lab reports after the close on Nov. 9, the same evening as AST SpaceMobile, and each needs a quarter strong enough to break from the pack.
Neutron still has no date
On Oct. 14, Rocket Lab pushed Neutron’s first launch into 2027 after inspections found voids in a first-stage tank dome. “Possible success isn’t our standard,” CEO Sir Peter Beck said.
CFO Adam Spice expects positive adjusted EBITDA the quarter after Neutron’s first successful flight, so not before the second quarter of 2027.
Analysts still see revenue more than doubling between 2025 and 2027:
Those estimates could fall: Citizens JMP cut its target to $90 from $130 in October over the delay’s hit to launch revenue in 2027 and 2028.
TIKR tracks 22 analysts on Rocket Lab. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Rocket Lab, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Rocket Lab’s Analyst Ratings
Cantor is $20 above the Street
Cantor’s $122 would need a much richer multiple. Rocket Lab traded at 28x forward sales on Nov. 2, well off May’s 89x peak but above its 21x five-year average:
At $122, on today’s estimates, that would be about 65x, more than three times the average. The Street’s targets run from $64 to $150:
Listen for a Neutron date on Nov. 9
On Nov. 9, I want a Neutron launch date more than a revenue beat.
Until there’s one, the Street’s $102 looks likelier than Cantor’s $122, and I’d wait to buy. If management names a quarter in the first half of 2027, though, Cantor’s target starts to look a lot more reasonable.
