Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT) has been in a bit of a slump following the Aug. 20 release of its fiscal 2027 second-quarter earnings. From the Aug. 19 closing price of $114.03 to the Aug. 26 closing price of $104.34, the stock price dropped roughly 8.5%.
With September historically a tough month for the broader stock market, shareholders may worry that the recent stock price decline could gain momentum. Here’s what history tells us about Walmart’s performance in September and whether Walmart can follow its usual pattern.
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Historically, September is a tough month for the broader markets, with the S&P 500 averaging a negative return during the month from 1928 through 2023.
That said, Walmart bucked the trend of the broader markets in more recent years. From 2007 to 2025, for the month of September, Walmart averaged a meager but still positive return of 0.6%. It’s also been profitable 68% of the time in September since 2007.
History offers a guidebook of where the Walmart stock price might head next. But it’s not a guarantee, and it could either follow the trend of a positive return for September, or it could sink or finish flat.
However, it may be an uphill battle for the stock price to climb in September amid lingering concerns about Walmart’s recent earnings. Aside from a broad market rally, there aren’t many catalysts to send the stock price higher, as Walmart is still dealing with consumer spending pressures.
Seasonality can help investors prepare for what could be a turbulent time. But a single month is less important for long-term investors, as well-run companies can create wealth for their shareholders over years and decades.
Zooming out a bit, over the last five years, the Walmart stock price climbed 110% as of this writing, compared to 71% for the S&P 500. That type of return highlights why focusing on the long term is more beneficial than how a stock could perform in any given month.
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