Quick Read
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SoFi surged 13% on Q3 earnings, beating revenue at $1.39B and EPS at $0.18, yet remains down 35% year to date.
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Management’s 2027 guidance targets $0.90 EPS and $6.40B revenue, requiring no capital raise to achieve.
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A prior 16% earnings beat still led to an 18% stock drop over 30 days, signaling SoFi’s beats don’t always hold.
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SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) trades at $17.14. The stock posted a 13.42% day-of jump on its third-quarter earnings report, so it now has to deliver on the bigger promises that caused that move.
SoFi runs a digital personal finance app backed by a bank charter. It funds its loans with $51.3B in deposits and serves 17.1M members. Even after the rally, the stock is down 34.53% year to date. Management said its original 2026 guidance assumed rate cuts, and the company experienced one rate hike instead.
Raised 2027 Guidance Makes SoFi Look Cheap on Forward Earnings
The quarter beat on both lines. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.18 vs. $0.17 consensus, and revenue reached $1.39B vs. $1.26B. Loan originations hit a record $16.93B (+71% YoY), and net interest margin widened to 6.14%.
Management’s 2027 outlook calls for $6.40B in adjusted revenue and $0.90 in adjusted EPS, which puts the stock at about 19x next year’s guided earnings. It trades at a forward P/E of 18 and a PEG ratio of 0.514. Management also said the plan does not require a capital raise.
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Shrinking Surprises and Rate Risk Threaten the Rally
Past beats have not held up for shareholders. After the Q4 2025 report, earnings came in 16.07% above estimates, yet the stock fell 18.02% over the next 30 days. The size of each EPS beat has also shrunk, from 93.55% in Q1 2025 to 7.02% this quarter.
Fair-value losses exceeded $800 million, and hedge gains of about $734 million covered most of them. Technology Platform revenue fell 24%. Credit card charge-offs ran at 7.77%, and tax expense rose to $76.8M from $9.2M. With a beta of 2.332 and a trailing P/E near 30, the stock leaves little room for a stumble.
