American business activity just hit a five-year high. Stocks fell on the news, which tells you everything you need to know about the market’s relationship with the Federal Reserve right now.
The Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) dropped 1% as of 12:29 p.m. ET, one day after closing at a record. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) each fell 0.6%. Eighteen of the Dow’s 30 components traded lower at this timestamp.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a “Double Down” signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same “Total Conviction” signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Good news for the economy, bad news for stocks
S&P Global’s flash composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 58.4 in September from 56.0, the highest reading since July 2021. The industrial health metric is showing approximately 5% annualized growth. But the headline didn’t tell the whole story.
New orders hit their highest level since March 2022, work backlogs also passed a high set in the inflation-burdened spring of 2022, and the gauge of input prices jumped to 66.4, the highest since October 2022. In other words, the American economy is flashing signals last seen during a full-throated inflation crisis.
Bond traders got the message fast. The 10-year yield jumped 12 basis points to 5.087%, a level last seen in July 2007. October rate-hike odds shot above 73%, from 55.4% yesterday and 8.8% a month ago.
Two Dow names added to the pressure. McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) fell 6.1% and subtracted 90 points after laying out new long-term growth targets and roughly $8.5 billion in franchisee support through 2036. Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) dropped 3.4%, cutting another 71 Dow points, due to regulatory proposals regarding Chrome and Android in the British market.
The best performer today was the one most people would rather see dropping. Iran spelled out what it wants before peace talks resume: end the port blockade, lift sanctions, release frozen assets, and let Iran and Oman decide on the safe shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. That’s not exactly fertile grounds for a quick settlement, so oil prices are rising again. Brent climbed roughly 3.3% to $103 per barrel.
When strong growth becomes the problem
The industrial market’s robust growth would normally support equities, but with inflation above target and the Fed already hiking rates, strength in the data now reads as a sign of tighter monetary policy.
