Walmart (WMT +2.79%), the world’s largest brick-and-mortar retailer with over 10,800 stores and clubs across 19 countries, has been a reliable long-term investment. Its stock has risen about 3,240% over the past 30 years, easily outpacing the S&P 500’s 916% gain.
Including reinvested dividends, Walmart generated a total return of 5,170%. It’s also raised its dividend annually for 53 consecutive years. That makes it a Dividend King, or a company that has increased its payout annually for at least half a century. Walmart maintained that streak even as wars, recessions, and other macro headwinds rattled the broader markets.
Image source: Walmart.
Past performance never guarantees future gains, but I believe Walmart is still an evergreen stock that will continue to outperform the market. That’s why it’s the only retail stock I’d be comfortable holding through the next market crash.
What are Walmart’s core strengths?
Walmart generates most of its revenue from its namesake stores in the United States. The company’s Sam’s Club stores compete against Costco in the warehouse club market, and it operates smaller regional chains and e-commerce sites overseas.
Walmart’s scale and diversification helped it keep up with Amazon as other brick-and-mortar retailers struggled. It expanded its e-commerce marketplace, fulfilled online orders through its massive network of brick-and-mortar stores, upgraded its shipping and curbside pickup services, renovated its stores, and aggressively matched Amazon’s prices. It even launched its own subscription service, Walmart+, to counter Amazon Prime.
Today’s Change
Current Price
From fiscal 2016 to fiscal 2026 (which ended this January), Walmart’s revenue and EPS (adjusted for a stock split) grew at CAGRs of 4% and 6%, respectively. It achieved that stable long-term growth even as the pandemic, inflation, rising interest rates, geopolitical conflicts, and tariffs generated fierce headwinds for the retail sector.
Why is Walmart still a great stock to buy and hold?
From fiscal 2026 to fiscal 2029, analysts expect Walmart’s revenue and EPS to grow at CAGRs of 5% and 10%, respectively. That growth should be driven by rising profits in its e-commerce segment (as economies of scale kick in), the expansion of its higher-margin advertising business, AI-powered pricing and recommendations, the automation of its supply chain, the expansion of its private-label brands and ancillary services, and its overseas reaccleration.
All of those long-term catalysts make Walmart a great dividend-paying retail stock to buy, hold, and forget for a few decades. Its forward yield of 0.8% might not impress income-oriented investors, but its low payout ratio of 34% gives it plenty of room for future dividend hikes.
