Shareholders of First Tractor Company Limited (HKG:38) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 12% to HK$9.20 following its latest quarterly results. Overall the results were a little better than the analysts were expecting, with revenues beating forecasts by 8.5%to hit CN¥3.2b. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We’ve gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
After the latest results, the three analysts covering First Tractor are now predicting revenues of CN¥13.0b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to climb 13% to CN¥0.83. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥12.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.84 in 2026. So it looks like there’s been no major change in sentiment following the latest results, although the analysts have made a small increase to to revenue forecasts.
View our latest analysis for First Tractor
Even though revenue forecasts increased, there was no change to the consensus price target of HK$14.00, suggesting the analysts are focused on earnings as the driver of value creation.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting First Tractor’s growth to accelerate, with the forecast 23% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.6% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it’s pretty clear that First Tractor is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there’s been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$14.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year’s earnings. We have estimates – from multiple First Tractor analysts – going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example – First Tractor has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
