Mark Zuckerberg wants in on the prediction market hype, and he’s reportedly directed staff at Meta to begin developing an app similar to Polymarket and Kalshi.
The New York Times was the first to report (1) the claim on June 23. Speaking on the condition of anonymity, two employees with knowledge of the matter told the Times that Zuckerberg dispatched a small team to design a smartphone predictions market app.
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One employee admitted that users would not bet money, and that the app would eventually rely on a video-game-style points system to encourage use. Though Meta has reportedly not ruled out including money bets.
The app is referred to internally as “Arena” and would run independent of Meta’s other social apps, which include Facebook, Instagram, Messenger and WhatsApp.
Meta did not respond to Moneywise’s request for comment.
Stocks fall in response to the report
The report has been attributed to triggering a series of stock market slips. Sports betting platform DraftKings fell more than 2% (2) after the Times report was released. Flutter Entertainment, the parent company behind FanDuel, also fell nearly 2% but remained in the black by the end of the day.
Both DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment have begun offering prediction market contracts, but have struggled over the past year, grappling with the potential impact on traditional sports betting.
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The rise of prediction markets
Prediction markets have emerged as a cultural phenomenon, evolving from a niche political forecasting tool to massive trading platforms. In 2025, Kalshi and Polymarket, two of the biggest platforms, drew a combined $50 billion (3) in online trades. In 2026, the total has already climbed past $130 billion.
Zuckerberg has paid attention to social trends and user behavior when developing new products. The prediction market app is reportedly part of a larger trend at Meta to create new apps based on emerging online social behaviour.
This is also not the first time Meta has experimented with prediction markets. It released Forecast in 2020 (4), a crowdsourced prediction market app that allowed people to guess what would happen in the world during the pandemic. It was shut down in 2022.
