These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of the trading day.
1. U.S. President Donald Trump indefinitely extended a ceasefire with Iran as peace talks remain on hold, walking back threats to resume fighting even as the Strait of Hormuz remains all but shut… Washington is extending the truce — which began just over two weeks ago — until Iran submits a new proposal “and discussions are concluded, one way or the other.” (Bloomberg)
That extension, which even Trump said on Tuesday wasn’t likely, is fostering a rebound even as oil prices move higher on Wednesday morning, pushing past $100 per barrel. While the market is breathing a sigh of relief, the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will extend the duration of disruption, and as of now, there is no clear end on the horizon. The other shoe we’ll continue to watch for is how this reverberates through company guidance this week and next, two weeks with a significant portion of the S&P 500 reporting.
2. The White House has developed something akin to a “naughty and nice” list of NATO countries, as the Trump administration looks for ways to punish allies who refused to back the Iran war. The effort, which officials worked on ahead of NATO head Mark Rutte’s visit to Washington this month, includes an overview of members’ contributions to the alliance and places them into tiers, according to three European diplomats and a U.S. defense official familiar with the plan. (Politico)
On the one hand, we’re not surprised given comments from Trump and others in his administration. But such a list, in conjunction with Trump’s stated plan to rebuild tariffs in the coming months, has the potential to not only disrupt trade but also long-held geopolitical alliances. Of course, when it comes to Trump, we have to ask how much of this is part of its negotiating playbook, especially with the mid-term elections only months away?
3. United Airlines beat earnings expectations in the first quarter but lowered full-year guidance as the carrier braces for rising fuel costs brought on by the war with Iran… United said that the average fuel cost in the first quarter was $2.78 per gallon and that it experienced a $340 million increase in fuel expenses compared with the first quarter of 2025… For the second quarter, United forecasts adjusted earnings between $1 and $2 a share. For the full year, United changed its profit guidance range to $7-$11 a share, compared with its previous earnings guidance of $12 to $14 a share. (Barron’s)
First Alaska Airlines (ALK) , and now United (UAL) . What United’s earnings press release did not share was the company’s expectation for average fuel cost in the current quarter or the analogous figure for 2026. We expect that to be heavily probed during the Q&A portion of Wednesday morning’s earnings conference call. As that figure is revealed, it will help us puzzle through the impact in other sectors whose cost structure is heavily influenced by fuel, transportation, petrochemical and related costs.
Case in point, on Wednesday morning, TE Connectivity (TEL) , which manufactures electronic components and sensors for power and data applications, warned it may have to pass higher raw material costs on to customers if the conflict in the Middle East continued to disrupt supply chains. Per TE, these pressures include higher costs for transportation, including freight rates, and oil-based products such as resins.
4. Power equipment maker GE Vernova on Wednesday raised its annual revenue forecast, as strong demand from data centers accelerated order growth across its power and electrification units. The company now expects revenue of $44.5 billion to $45.5 billion in 2026, compared with its prior view of $44 billion to $45 billion. It reported $18.3 billion in orders in the first quarter, a growth of more than 71% organically. (Reuters)
Following the increased capital spending plans by electric utilities to $1.4 trillion through 20230, up from the prior forecast of $1.1 trillion, and data center construction announcements, GE Vernova’s (GEV) order book is a nice confirmation point. It also keeps us bullish on the Portfolio’s position in Eaton (ETN) , which will report its Q1 2026 results on May 5.
5. Elon Musk’s SpaceX has struck a deal for the right to acquire code-editing start-up Cursor for $60bn in an attempt to catch up with AI rivals months before the rocket maker’s initial public offering… Cursor was valued at $29bn in November and has been one of the fastest-growing start-ups in Silicon Valley since it launched in 2022. Musk is hoping Cursor’s customer base of software engineers and expertise in AI coding tools will help him reel in AI rivals whose models have outstripped those produced by his xAI lab. (FT)
We’ve long said M&A activity is used to fill product or technological gaps or extend geographic reach. In the world of AI, we can add talent to that list. On Wednesday, Musk and SpaceX continue the three-day analyst meeting, courting mutual funds and pension plans. While we’re not a fly on the wall at those meetings, this announcement suggests xAI, along with Starlink, could be two key drivers of SpaceX’s business investors focus on as they evaluate the business ahead of the pending IPO.
Per the SpaceX IPO filing, the Starlink satellite internet service and its $4.42 billion in operating profit are subsidizing much of the company’s spending.
6. Bloomberg News reported Tuesday that Deutsche Telekom AG and its American arm, T-Mobile US Inc. are discussing the creation of a new holding company that would make a stock bid for shares of both carriers. Such a transaction would bring companies with a combined market capitalization of around $380 billion under one roof — establishing a merged entity with greater heft to potentially pursue acquisitions. (Bloomberg)
The market has been focused on the pending wave of mega-IPOs, but M&A activity has remained brisk. If such a mega-merger were to occur, it could potentially trigger another leg up in M&A activity. We see the potential for that as reasons to not only remain owners of Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bank of America (BAC) shares, but as something that could give us another reason to revisit our current price targets for those shares.
7. Economic data today per TipRanks: MBA Mortgage Application Index (Weekly), EIA Crude Oil Inventories (Weekly).
8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM – AT&T (T) , Boeing (BA) , Elevance Health (ELV) , GE Vernova (GEV) , M/I Homes (MHO) , Masco (MAS) , NVR (NVR) , Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC) , Vertiv (VRT) . PM – CACI (CACI) , Crown Castle (CCI) , CSX (CSX) , Graco (GGG) , (IBM) , Knight-Swift (KNX) , Lam Research (LRCX) , Las Vegas Sands (LVS) , ServiceNow (NOW) , Southwest Air (LUV) , Tesla (TSLA) , Texas Instruments (TXN) , United Rentals (URI) and Waste Connections (WCN).
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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long BAC, ETN, MS, and URI.
